The political feud between President Hassan Mohamoud and Said Deni escalated on May 8 when Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre of the federal government attacked Deni’s leadership of Puntland. The feud, however, has raised many eyebrows and even left some wary of the real purpose of this conflict.
Prime Minister Barre accused Deni of obstructing development projects to be implemented in Puntland. He also accused him of sabotaging Somalia’s debt relief process. This latest project is one of the flagship projects of the previous government and has been hailed by the Somali people.
The first salvo against Deni was launched against all odds by the president of the federal government during his speech after the Jum’ah sermon on May 5 at the presidential palace mosque.
A few days earlier, Hassan had claimed ignorance of any conflict with the Puntland president, despite evidence to the contrary. So, the general surprise when he unpacked in public that Puntland is on the brink of collapse unless Deni is stopped from undoing 24 years of progress.
Deni and Mohamoud at loggerheads
In fact, it was common knowledge that the conflict between the old friends had been brewing since Hassan Mohamoud was elevated to the presidency through Deni’s largesse and scheming. The tandem, backed by the Americans and the British, had angered the Somali people by stalling the elections to force President Farmajo to accept their terms.
The two accomplices, although belonging to two opposing clans when it comes to running Somalia, belong to the same politico-religious movement, now at the helm of the nation. They also shared a deep-seated aversion of Farmajo’s strong central government program over the fragmented system that divides Somalia into clan enclaves.
In recent months, Said Deni has boycotted national consultative meetings, which bring together regional state presidents and federal government leaders. As a result, resolutions to improve the working relationship between the federal government and the autonomous regions have remained at a standstill.
Others join the fray
The Prime Minister’s speech echoed and even amplified President Mohamoud’s position. What is surprising is that Barre, whom many call “spineless” or “the president’s secretary” for resigning his constitutional responsibility as head of government in favor of the president and his advisers, has never shown any backbone in politics.
In addition, the next day, President Muse Bihi of Somaliland inserted himself into Somali federal politics by supporting the federal government’s view. In his annual address to the secessionist region’s parliament, he attacked the current leadership of Puntland, accusing them of impeding Somalia’s development. The irony of this incongruous position was not lost on anyone.
Within the same 24 hours on May 10, Said Deni, who had planned a political rally for his current campaign for the May 25 municipal elections, seized the opportunity and began to fan the flame of clan hatred. He used attacks on him from Mogadishu and Hargeisa to incite his voters to defend the clan and Puntland’s democracy.
Rescuing Deni
Many commentators smelled the smoking gun there, a collusion to rescue Said Deni get re-elected in the face of mounting opposition in Puntland. Indeed, Deni is very unpopular in the region. He is accused of corruption, mismanagement, misuse of public fund and abuse of all kinds.
He is also held responsible for embezzling Puntland state funds for his presidential bid on May 2022 and, once he failed, for facilitating Hassan Mohamoud’s takeover. Deni has invested money and weapons in Hassan Mohamoud to undermine the former president, who nevertheless comes from his clan.
It goes without saying that the popular uprising in Las Anod came at the right time and gave Deni a chance to assert himself with his clan by helping the region of Sool and Sanaag to free itself from the tutelage of Somaliland.
Now some Deni’s local opponents who on May 15 held a political consultation meeting in Garowe are wary of the unusual federal leadership’s direct intervention. They asked Mohamoud to stay clear of meddling in Puntland politics.
The UAE involvement
You should know that Deni, Bihi and Mohamoud are henchmen of the monarch of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Somalia. Indeed, the Emirates have invested heavily in Somaliland and have taken over the port of Berbera. They also seized the port of Bosaso in Puntland, trained special units for Deni and created sources of income for him and his family.
The Emirates have also invested heavily to defeat President Farmajo, who ousted them from Somalia in 2018 following their interference in the country’s affairs. Since Hassan Mohamoud was installed, they have come back in force, training autonomous forces entirely under their command. Worst, they obtained from him the signing of a partnership which virtually makes Somalia an Emirati backyard.
Two weeks ago, in his first town-hall meeting, with a room packed with his own staff, supporters and close security, President Mohamoud launched into a passionate defense of Somalia’s unique relationship with the United Arab Emirates.
Said Deni is a regular in Abu Dhabi. This political rally started right after his last visit to the Emirates and this possible collusion between Somaliland, the federal government and Deni makes many rightly wonder what is in it for everyone.
What’s in stake for Somali leaders
Hassan Mohamoud wants Puntland to stop boycotting meetings of the National Consultative Forum and putting his signature on the forum’s decisions. Hassan uses this forum to minimize the role of the national parliament, unpredictable according to him.
These decisions are necessary to share the resources of the state but also to advance in the process of approval of a staggering debt that is looming on the horizon after the relief of the national debt. So far, however, missed benchmarks due to political feuding, corruption, mismanagement of the economy are of great concern to Mohamoud.
Bihi wants to silence the popular uprising which has greatly depreciated his forces, empty his coffers and his chances of being re-elected in Somaliland. He also wants Deni to put an end to the flow of fighters and weapons coming from his territory to defend Las Anod. An action that would allow Somaliland and Djibouti to get their hands on the region.
Foreign interference driving Somalia
A request that also comes from the tripartite agreement called Irir Samaale Alliance between Hassan Mohamoud, Bihi and Ismail Omar Guelleh, the president of neighboring Djibouti and also another handler of these two Somali leaders.
In all this, Deni not only wants to be re-elected but also to line his pockets and obtain an arrangement in khat market and own terms in national resources-sharing and a bigger share in foreign aid. There is no doubt that Deni’s return was never on Hassan Mohamoud’s wishlist as the two are cut from the same cloth.
However, President Mohamoud has no control over Somalia since he let foreign leaders have a say in internal affairs. Indeed, Ismail Omar Guelleh and Mohamed bin Zayed have the upper the hand in how politics should work for them in Somalia.
The Djibouti strongman wants Bihi to stay in power in Somaliland while the Arab Emir has installed a military base in Puntland and has extensive dealings with Deni for years. Additionally, Deni is needed to pressure the SSC-Khatumo to put up with Somaliland.
Conclusion
Deni’s return will have many consequences that will further accelerate Somalia’s downfall:
1. consolidate Bin Zayed grip on the country from Somaliland to Jubaland.
2. Give ammunition to Hassan Mohamoud to continue unhindered on his dismantlement policies, pocket lining and silence any nationalistic or popular demands.
3. Las Anod will be forced back into Somaliland fold with some concessions. Of course, the blue revolution will be buried once and for all and Tukaraq will return to its role as a dry port and checkpoint between Puntland and Somaliland.
In this carefully crafted deception, Somali people would lose big while the UAE would reign supreme in Somalia taking, with Deni, Mohamoud and Bihi assistance, the fragmentation of the country would be to a point of no return.
Said Deni is no hero and the people of Puntland know that very well. He is a key piece in this machination and removing him from power sooner would not only pave the way for removing Hassan Mohamoud and Musa Bihi from power, but would cripple the UAE’s plans in Somalia.
