Somalia has not officially chosen a side in Sudan’s civil war. Yet, through silence and deniability, it finds itself entangled in the conflict—a quiet entanglement that exposes the deep vulnerability of its fragmented state.
A Supply Chain Through Fragmented Territory
Since the war between Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began in April 2023, complex supply routes feeding the RSF have emerged. According to Sudanese authorities and observers, these routes now extend through Somali airspace and airports in Puntland, Somalia’s autonomous northeastern region. Flights from this area have been flagged as conduits for weapons, equipment, and foreign fighters supporting the RSF.
This alleged activity spotlights Puntland’s strategic role. The region, with its coastline on the Red Sea–Gulf of Aden corridor, hosts long-standing security and logistical footholds for the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It operates as a semi-autonomous gateway, where foreign actors often negotiate directly with local authorities, at times beyond the effective oversight of the federal government in Mogadishu.
The Blame Game: Deflecting from a Powerful Partner
The federal government’s response to these allegations has been more revealing than the accusations themselves. For years, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration portrayed the UAE as Somalia’s most reliable partner in security and development.
That narrative fractured under scrutiny. When evidence surfaced of a Puntland-linked flights tied to Sudan, Mogadishu did not address the UAE’s evident role. Instead, it redirected blame downward, accusing Puntland’s local administration of authorizing operations without federal approval.
By conveniently shifting the blame onto Puntland, Mogadishu inadvertently exposed a dual failure: its powerlessness over a defiant regional government, and its willful omission that federal authorities retain sovereignty over Somali airspace and its traffic.
A Strategic Omission with Consequences
This omission was evidently deliberate. As early as May 2025, Khartoum had formally presented Somali officials with evidence—including flight data and intelligence—alleging that Emirati-backed networks operating from Somali territory were supplying the RSF.
Elected amid controversy, Hassan Sheikh has done more than forgive past Emirati transgressions in Somalia—he has empowered them to act with a free hand. Even amid public unease over Emirati port concessions, military training programs, and opaque security agreements, Mogadishu defended Abu Dhabi as a stabilizing ally essential to Somalia’s recovery.
Naming the UAE would have meant confronting a powerful regional actor with deep financial and security leverage inside Somalia. Silence, by contrast, preserved critical relationships—at the cost of credibility.
The High Stakes of Complicity
This episode transcends a single flight. It highlights a structural crisis: a federal government caught between public accountability and foreign patronage, and regional administrations empowered to act without restraint. By allowing its territory to serve—whether deliberately or through negligence—as a logistical hub for a devastating conflict, Somalia risks severe diplomatic fallout and reputational damage. It also places the nation at odds with African Union and UN calls to end external support prolonging Sudan’s war.
In trying to avoid choosing sides, Somalia’s fragmented sovereignty has made it a silent participant. The result is an uneasy reality where the state’s sovereignty is proclaimed loudly but enforced selectively, drawing a fragile nation deeper into a regional conflict it cannot afford.
