A Familiar Ritual, Once Again
Ismaïl Omar Guelleh (IOG), Djibouti’s immovable president, has once again granted an interview — an exercise he indulges in from time to time, with the self-assurance of a man convinced that everything he touches turns to gold. Like so many long-serving rulers before him, he clearly relishes these moments of controlled exposure, where admiration outweighs contradiction and where his narrative is allowed to unfold without friction.
“Power, when it lasts long enough, begins to confuse permanence with legitimacy.”
For this purpose, François Soudan was the obvious choice. A veteran of the African political press, he has long mastered the genre: respectful proximity, polished questions, and an understanding of what such power expects in return. Jeune Afrique, the Paris-based magazine where Soudan built much of his career, has for decades played this intermediary role — a platform where African leaders speak less to their own populations than to foreign chancelleries, investors, and former colonial powers.
Once influential in the 1980s and 1990s, before the internet and social media disrupted information hierarchies, Jeune Afrique today speaks mostly to an aging, nostalgic readership. African youth have largely moved on, unimpressed by narratives that feel scripted, sanitized, and disconnected from their lived realities. But that hardly matters. The intended audience is elsewhere.
“This is not journalism for citizens, but reassurance for capitals.”
Guelleh, whose political longevity mirrors that of the publication itself, may not fully grasp this shift — or may simply not care. The message, in any case, is not aimed at Djiboutians. It is addressed to Paris, Washington, Brussels, and other capitals still inclined to equate “stability” with permanence.
With that in mind, it is worth setting aside the ritual itself and focusing on what Guelleh chose to talk about — and, just as importantly, what he wants the public and the relevant powers to hear.
What IOG Wants Us to Know
1. Power, but Without Saying It Out Loud
On the question of a sixth term, Guelleh maintained studied ambiguity. He neither confirmed nor denied future intentions, presenting himself instead as a reluctant guardian of national unity — a man who would never endanger Djibouti through personal ambition. The message is familiar: if he stays, it will be out of duty, not desire.
2. Constitutional Rules as Adjustable Details
While avoiding direct discussion of constitutional limits, the interview implicitly prepared minds for their reinterpretation. Age limits and legal constraints appeared less as firm principles than as technicalities subordinate to “national interest” — an argument that would soon find concrete expression in institutional decisions.
“When the constitution becomes flexible, it is always in one direction.”
3. Health, Longevity, and the Politics of Reassurance
With light humor, Guelleh brushed aside concerns about age and health, projecting vitality and control. This was not anecdotal; it was political signaling. Longevity, in this narrative, equals legitimacy.
4. Djibouti as an Island of Stability
Guelleh emphasized his country’s strategic value in a volatile Horn of Africa, portraying Djibouti as indispensable — a safe harbor amid regional chaos. The subtext is clear: continuity at the top is the price of geopolitical reliability.
5. Foreign Powers and Strategic Autonomy
While carefully measured, his remarks reinforced the idea of Djibouti as a sovereign actor navigating competing external interests. Criticism of certain regional players contrasted with reassurance toward long-standing Western partners, particularly France.
The Subtext That Matters
Taken as a whole, the interview is less about Djibouti’s future than about reassuring external stakeholders. It seeks to normalize permanence, present inevitability as wisdom, and frame personal rule as national necessity. The tone is calm, confident, and paternal — a man above politics, explaining politics to the world.
Whether the audience still believes this story is another matter.
