Within the heavily fortified Halane compound in Mogadishu, preparations are underway for a pivotal meeting between Somalia’s federal president and regional leaders. The goal is to finalize an agreement on federal elections, with UN envoys and foreign representatives observing the proceedings.
Jubaland’s leader, Ahmed Madoobe, arrived five days early. But his Puntland counterpart, Said Deni, was notably absent, keeping regional and international observers waiting.
Delays are not unusual for Deni, who has a reputation for arriving late. This time, however, his absence signaled more than a scheduling quirk. After repeatedly framing his dispute with President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmajo” was a matter of principle due to his concern for the nation, Deni found himself entangled in a deepening crisis on his own doorstep.
Recent events suggest that Deni has far more to contend with in Puntland than in the political arenas of Gedo, Banadir, or Mogadishu.
Economic Collapse and Corruption
Over the past several years, Puntland has been severely mismanaged, resulting in hyperinflation that has made life increasingly unbearable in Bosaso, the state’s commercial hub, as well as in Garowe and other towns. Protests against the deteriorating economic conditions have been met with harsh crackdowns.
The economic crisis is compounded by widespread corruption across all government agencies, including at the highest levels. Living wage for security forces remain abysmal, rendering army and police officers unreliable. A recent attack on Bosaso prison was widely anticipated, with reports suggesting that prison guards are willing to compromise their duties for financial gain.
Observers argue that when Deni’s inner circle is deeply mired in corruption, it is unrealistic to expect better conduct from subordinates.
Crackdowns and Constitutional Overreach
Human rights have also suffered. Deni has imprisoned journalists for reporting on his administration’s mismanagement and unpopularity.
His tenure has also been marked by what critics call extreme anti-constitutional acts. He has illegally dismissed elected members of parliament, bypassed his vice president by appointing key allies to senior government and military posts, and barred his deputy from using the state-owned media outlet.
Last week, MP Dhore—one of eight lawmakers whose immunity was revoked—stated he was targeted for his knowledge of Deni’s own election in 2019. Dhore claimed Deni offered him a bribe to secure his vote, an offer he refused.
Administrative Turmoil and Regional Tensions
In a recent move, Bosaso Mayor Abdisalam Bashir Abdisalam resigned following a directive from Deni’s office. The same statement ordered the Puntland Auditor General to investigate the municipality’s financial management.
Deni has also dismissed senior police officers, including the Garowe Police Chief, whom he accused of failing to follow orders.
In the remote Gardafui region, tensions are rising over reported Emirati interest in controlling the area to assert influence over maritime zones near Socotra Island. The local population, already at odds with the Deni administration due to a lack of development projects, fears foreign encroachment.
Political Maneuvering
By delaying his arrival in Mogadishu, Deni appears to have avoided direct engagement with the international community—the very actors he previously called upon to mediate his dispute with Farmajo over electoral processes. Instead, he chose to address his domestic troubles before attempting to lecture the federal government.
Analysts suggest that if Farmajo adopted similar tactics, Deni could face arrest, a police state, or the stripping of parliamentary immunity for dissenting lawmakers.
Since his contentious speech on federal elections—which sparked outrage in Puntland—Deni has grown increasingly insecure and unilateral. He has deployed heavily armed militias to checkpoints around major cities, searching vehicles for signs of planned protests.
A System on the Brink
Deni came to power vowing to fight corruption, but critics argue he has surpassed his predecessors in mismanagement. Puntland, once a model of relative stability, now teeters on the brink of collapse.
The people of Puntland have become increasingly vocal about what they reject: mismanagement, corruption, police-state tactics, clan-based discrimination, nepotism, foreign encroachment on their land and sea, and food insecurity.