The recent summit in Dhusamareb—which brought together the President, the Prime Minister, and six regional leaders—provided clear evidence that a majority of stakeholders are willing to compromise for the national good. President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble, and regional leaders Abdi Karie Qorqor, Abdi-Aziz Laftagaren, Omar Filish, and Ali Hussein Gudlaawe demonstrated considerable flexibility on the most contentious issues, including the Gedo region, Banadir representation, the selection of Somaliland’s representatives, and the composition of the election committee.
Regrettably, despite this spirit of cooperation, the meeting concluded in failure. The intransigence of a few key parties rendered a comprehensive agreement impossible.
Two Difficult Paths Forward
This reality forces a difficult but necessary conclusion: moving forward without the participation of Puntland and Jubaland is now a plausible option. The alternative—extending the government’s mandate and that of the People’s Assembly beyond February 8th—must also be considered.
It falls squarely within the President’s responsibilities and constitutional prerogatives to prevent a power vacuum that could plunge the nation into chaos once his current mandate expires. Further delays and the current climate of uncertainty only embolden those opposed to Somalia’s recovery, undermining the nation’s most vital interests.
Foreign Interference and Local Agendas
Over recent months, we have witnessed foreign nations—notably the UAE, Kenya, and Djibouti—attempt to discredit the President and inflame toxic political divisions. Opposition figures like Hassan Sheikh, Ahmed Madobe, and Said Deni, who appear to align with these foreign agendas, are jeopardizing the country’s reconstruction, its hard-won stability, and the public’s fragile trust in its leadership.
A Signed Agreement, A Broken Promise
The recent obstructionism from Said Deni and Ahmed Madobe is particularly egregious, given that both leaders signed a binding agreement with the President on September 17th. Their current stance displays a blatant disregard for established procedures, the national interest, and the future unity of Somalia.
The Risk of Endless Concessions
If President Farmajo continues to capitulate to international pressure to strike a deal with those who repeatedly ignore prior commitments, he risks alienating the very regional leaders who have remained patient through endless negotiations. Granting undue time and credibility to two individuals unwilling to honor signed agreements will inevitably erode the faith of his most ardent supporters.
A Call for Opposition Restraint
To salvage the nation, the opposition—including the self-styled Committee of Presidential Candidates—must temper its aggressive rhetoric and disruptive actions. They must instead facilitate an environment conducive to a smooth and credible electoral process. Such cooperation serves the interests of a united and stable Somalia. Their current reactionary posture could cost them far more than a presidential seat.
Listening to the Nation, Not Foreign Envoys
The opposition is unlikely to ever express satisfaction with government actions and will likely amplify their grievances regardless. However, President Farmajo must now weigh the expectations of the broader nation above the demands of a few. Somalis desire a decisive leader, and at this critical juncture, decisions regarding the nation’s fate should be taken by the President-elect and the people’s representatives—not determined by foreign diplomats in distant capitals.
Parliament Holds the Final Word
It is ultimately up to the representatives of the people to decide the next step. This could involve granting the President extraordinary authority to organize elections without Puntland and Jubaland, or approving a longer mandate extension to find an acceptable resolution to the current deadlock. This decision will be made during the President’s upcoming address to parliament.
The Real Threat: Al-Shabaab, Not Doomsday
Those who predict a doomsday scenario after February 8th should recognize that Somalia today is not the country it was ten or twenty years ago. The nation has evolved, and its political class has matured. The most tangible risk on the horizon is that Al-Shabaab, the main terrorist group, may exploit these political feuds to launch retaliatory strikes, as they have recently done in several regions. This is a threat that must be confronted with unity and resolve, not division.