Deadlock Over Elections Deepens
A fourth national consultative conference on elections, convened by the Somali government, is on the brink of cancellation. President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo has faced mounting uncertainty over his authority since his term expired on February 8th. Political pressure—particularly from regional states such as Puntland and Jubaland—has intensified following the failure to implement the September 17 agreement and the subsequent outbreaks of conflict.
Failed Consultations and an Expired Mandate
The previous round of talks, held in Dhusamareb from February 1–5 between the federal government, regional states, and the Benadir Region, ended inconclusively. President Farmajo departed without a deal, leaving the country with no clear electoral timetable as his mandate lapsed.
A Series of Aborted Conferences and Venue Disputes
If the proposed March 4 meeting—also convened by President Farmajo—fails to materialize, it would mark the third time in less than a month that he has called for federal-regional talks without securing the participation of both Puntland and Jubaland.
Following the Dhusamareb collapse, Farmajo scheduled a conference in Garowe on February 15. However, the Puntland administration rejected the venue and instead proposed Mogadishu. The president then issued another call for a regional conference in Mogadishu on February 18–19, despite rising tensions and a planned anti-government rally by presidential candidates on February 19. Many viewed the announcement as an attempt to preempt the demonstration before it could escalate.
Clashes, Boycotts, and Deepening Divisions
On the eve of that rally, clashes broke out between security forces and candidates’ militias, prompting the security forces to intervene and secure the area. This violence was subsequently cited by Puntland leader Said Deni and Jubaland leader Ahmed Madoobe as justification for boycotting the president’s meeting.
What Lies Ahead
Should Puntland and Jubaland boycott this upcoming conference for a third time—and should the president fail to take decisive steps toward organizing general elections—serious doubts will persist, and likely deepen, regarding his capacity to lead the nation. This is precisely the outcome for which the opposition to President Farmajo has been preparing.