With just two days remaining before the February 25 deadline, Somalia’s parliamentary election has descended into turmoil. While 70% of the 275 parliamentary seats have been filled, political actors are increasingly resorting to underhanded tactics to secure victories for their allies. The frantic final stretch has exposed the deep flaws inherent in the country’s clan-based indirect electoral system.
Rising Tensions and Growing Threats
Recent days have seen escalating tensions, growing polarization, and even outbreaks of violence. Though deadline extensions have become routine in Somali politics, the current situation is particularly concerning given the country’s simultaneous struggles. A devastating drought affects an estimated 3 million Somalis, while persistent security threats from militant groups continue to plague the nation.
Meanwhile, Somalia is implementing an IMF-mandated debt relief program, and international patience is wearing thin. The country urgently needs a stable, fully functioning administration capable of addressing these interconnected challenges and meeting international obligations.
The current scramble for seats has been largely driven by sanctions threats from the U.S. State Department against potential spoilers. However, international actors—particularly the U.S., UK, EU, and UN—bear partial responsibility for the current electoral chaos through their constant interventions. The threat of sanctions appears to have legitimized violations of democratic norms, transparency standards, candidate rights, and protections for women and marginalized groups.
Key Controversies Unfolding
Blocking Fahad Yasin
Prime Minister Roble’s attempt to block former spymaster Fahad Yasin from running marked a significant flashpoint. After removing Yasin from his post, Roble directed the Federal Election Implementation Team (FEIT)—which he controls—to request Yasin’s suspension. However, Hirshabelle’s electoral committee refused, noting that Yasin’s candidacy was procedurally sound.
The seat in Beledweyne was previously held by Roble’s close associate, Farah Abdiqadir, who is abroad for medical treatment. Fahad ran and won his seat on February 20 without any issue. He is hugely popular for modernizing NISA and his fight against terror.
Unfortunately, the celebration was short-lived. FEIT swiftly invalidated Yasin’s election while simultaneously recognizing other Beledweyne MPs elected that same day.
The decision sparked public outrage, particularly given Yasin’s minority clan background. Two days later, the Electoral Dispute Resolution Committee inexplicably reversed FEIT’s position.
Dysfunction at the Electoral Commission
On February 20, conflicting election results appeared across FEIT’s digital platforms. The commission claimed its website and social media accounts had been hacked, announcing it would restrict future communications to traditional media.
FEIT Chairman Muse Gelle later appeared on television, visibly distressed, confirming his team’s cancellation of Yasin’s results. His predecessor, Mohamed Cirro—unilaterally dismissed by Roble in December—tweeted that Gelle “was made to read out a script under duress, alone, with the rest of FEIT members locked out.”
These developments have eroded public trust, with each day bringing new surprises and twists. The opaque power struggles behind the scenes have rendered FEIT’s work inconsistent and unreliable.
Somali citizens have watched helplessly as some parliamentary seats were effectively “locked” for preferred candidates, who were then permitted to run alongside token opponents—dubbed “groomsmen” or “bridesmaids.” FEIT has become dysfunctional when it nullifies elections to accommodate the Prime Minister’s whims, and threats against FEIT leadership to force rule violations set a dangerous precedent.
Playing with Women’s Quota
In Somalia’s male-dominated political environment where “major” clans dominate through the 4.5 power-sharing system, Roble has shown little regard for women’s representation. Activists and politicians had secured donor support to achieve a 30% female presence in parliament, with international funders conditioning their electoral support on this commitment.
Yet Roble appears determined to diminish President Farmajo’s re-election chances, and foreign diplomats have openly supported the Prime Minister’s efforts—turning a blind eye as he manipulates the process.
On multiple occasions, Roble has allocated seats previously held by women to male allies or permitted women to compete against men in a society where clan delegates overwhelmingly favor male candidates.
Looting the Benadiri Community’s Seats
The international community has not prioritized protections for marginalized communities, allowing Roble to target them systematically. He has blocked candidates aligned with the president’s party while installing friends and family members.
The most troubling case involves the Benadiri community—an already marginalized minority group of mixed racial heritage in Mogadishu that suffered greatly during the civil war despite maintaining peaceful traditions. Roble stands accused of hijacking their five parliamentary seats, including HOP#034, reportedly reserved for his sister-in-law (currently Somalia’s ambassador to Pakistan), while her husband—opposition politician Abdikarim Guled—contests another constituency.
FEIT, acting on the Prime Minister’s instigation, claimed an unknown complaint from Yasin’s clan to annul his election—yet ignored the widespread public complaints and Benadiri community’s anger over the theft of their parliamentary representation.
Throwing Gedo Under the Bus
Roble has also turned a blind eye to violations by Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe, who seeks to prevent elections in Garbaharey, Gedo region. This area, part of Jubaland and home to President Farmajo’s clan, represents a key constituency for his re-election bid.
Madobe has allegedly attempted to move Gedo’s 16 seats to his stronghold of Kismayo, violating past agreements. His fallback option is to cancel Garbaharey elections entirely, claiming the region is beyond his control.
A FEIT spokesman inadvertently revealed this option when he told a BBC reporter that parliamentary quorum for the presidential election could be reached even without filling Garbaharey’s 16 seats.
The Flawed System
Somalia’s indirect electoral system—currently funded by the EU, UK, US, and UN—requires clan elders to select delegates who then choose their clan’s parliamentary representatives. These MPs subsequently elect the federal president. This lengthy process is inherently prone to conflict and corruption.
In 2016, Somali leaders agreed to abandon this clan-based indirect model by 2021. However, dissent emerged in 2020 when some regional states rejected the National Independent Electoral Committee’s request for additional time to organize a one-person-one-vote system. Puntland and Jubaland leaders, supported by UN and EU representatives in Somalia, pressured the federal government to revert to the indirect model established in the September 17, 2020 agreement.
Prime Minister Roble, tasked with overseeing the elections, has since been plagued by scandals involving embezzlement, public land grabbing, and nepotism. As his term concludes, he increasingly disregards established rules.
A Democracy in Name Only
All shots are allowed to win a seat in parliament. Mismanagement, corruption, obstruction, blackmail, looting, attacks, and threats against candidates have become commonplace. The Somali public watches helplessly as the stampede for seats exposes a system rotten to its core.
Yet the tragedy is not solely Somali-made. While the U.S. State Department’s sanctions threats have driven the current scramble, the constant meddling of the U.S., UK, EU, and UN has enabled this chaos. By funding the flawed indirect model and looking away as Roble manipulates the rules, foreign powers have legitimized the very violations of democratic norms, transparency, and minority rights they claim to oppose.
As the deadline arrives, one question haunts the Somali people: what kind of leadership—and what kind of nation—can emerge from such shameful practices?