Standoff Over The Federal Elections

Talks and meetings have been taking place in Mogadishu in recent days between regional state leaders, presidential candidates, and foreign diplomats to defuse the escalating standoff over the federal elections.

The discussions began with the arrival of Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe. Candidates also met privately with the presidents of other regional states, including Puntland’s Said Deni, Galmudug’s Ahmed Qoorqoor, and HirShabelle’s Ali Gudlawe, to discuss the country’s political situation and chart a path forward on electoral issues.

From the start, it was evident that four regional leaders—Ahmed Qoorqoor of Galmudug, Omar Filish of Benadir, Ali Gudlawe of HirShabelle, and Abdi-Aziz Laftagaren of Southwest—were aligned with the federal government regarding the election process. However, various opposition factions disputed the government’s conduct of the elections, stalled negotiations, and even questioned the President’s legitimacy to administer the vote.

Two days ago, on March 18, the disparate opposition factions joined forces. The newly formed National Salvation Forum now unites two key regional leaders, the Union of Presidential Candidates (UCP), and Abdi Hashi Abdullahi, the Speaker of the Upper House.

This diverse coalition is structured around a common purpose: to block President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo from winning another term. The new group has the advantage of clarifying the shared objectives between Presidents Deni and Madobe, the UCP, and Speaker Abdi Hashi’s agenda. Representing Puntland, Jubaland, and significant portions of HirShabelle, Benadir, and Somaliland, this four-member committee holds considerable sway. If they succeed in effectively harnessing the electoral power of Members of Parliament from these regions, they are well-positioned to defeat the outgoing president.

If Jubaland and Puntland aim to strengthen the status quo of a weak federal administration, what is the objective of the other coalition members? Looking at the configuration of the National Salvation Forum, the UCP is represented by a single candidate, Ahmed Sheikh Sharif, while the two regional leaders are both fully present. (The symbolism of Abdi Hashi’s inclusion remains largely secondary.)

This raises a critical question: who is leading whom? Are the candidates driving the agenda, or are the regional leaders? If the two recalcitrant leaders, Deni and Madobe, are calling the shots, it suggests they have convinced the UCP that the candidates failed to remove President Farmajo from power despite having ample time to do so after February 8. It also underscores that these two regional leaders hold the key to tightening the screws on Farmajo; without their pressure, he might not have conceded on critical issues, such as the disputed situation in the Gedo region.

Furthermore, critics argue that the UCP lacks the standing to dictate terms, as they were not signatories to the September 17 accord. Consequently, advocating for their prominent presence at upcoming negotiations is difficult to defend.

Notably, neither Deni nor Madobe has expressed an intention to run for president. Instead, they aim to play kingmakers, and they already know the type of personality they want to install in Villa Somalia.

A strong bet is that they prefer Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, having worked with him previously and maintained a very cordial relationship. During his previous tenure, Hassan Sheikh allowed regional leaders significant autonomy, even transferring certain central government prerogatives to the regions—such as handing over the country’s air traffic control to Somaliland. He permitted them to dictate terms to the federal government, stripping it of much of its authority. This deliberate weakening of the central government stands in direct contrast to President Farmajo’s principles, as witnessed in recent years.

Many Somalis are shocked by the absurdity of granting excessive political leverage to figures like Deni and Madobe. These leaders routinely crack down on political opponents and restrict public freedoms within their own regions, yet they are being empowered to block federal elections simply because they demand consultation on matters that fall strictly under federal jurisdiction.

In the coming days, the entire Somali nation anxiously awaits the outcome of the talks scheduled for March 22 and 23. These election negotiations are not merely about the selection of MPs and the president; they represent a fundamental standoff between two competing visions for national politics. Granting excessive power to regional leaders like Said Deni and Ahmed Madobe will further isolate the local population and risk reducing Somalia to a constellation of fragile, decentralized fiefdoms.