Why President Mohamud’s “Two-Day” Trip Turned into a Tense Waiting Game
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud returned from a five-day visit to Turkey on July 8 for an initially planned “two-day visit” after he received an invitation from Turkey. Similarly, he had announced a two-day visit to Abu Dhabi on June 19, a murky visit that also lasted five days. These sloppily arranged visits, if carried out by the president’s aides, leave another blemish on the professionalism of the president’s aides, mostly picked from the president’s inner clan.
A President in Waiting
Once in Turkey, it took four days for the President Hassan Mohamud to be received by Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He spent three days wandering between Ankara and Isparta, during which he visited and met Somali embassy staff and Somali nationals living in Turkey.
The president was first invited to talk at the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research in Ankara where he shared his thoughts and policy. On July 6, he visited the military base in Isparta where he met and spent time with young Somali soldiers in training. Many Somalis remember, as one of the opposition leaders for the past 5 years, Mohamud’s scathing criticism of Turkish military support for Somalia.
Cold Reception vs. Warm Welcome
Compared to the warm welcome of former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, with whom Erdogan had a more than cordial relationship, the cold reception given to Mohamud is a testimony of an underlying discontent. The Somali president most likely understood the Turkish position and seized all the opportunities of these four days by singing the praises of the relations between the two “brotherly” countries.
The meeting with Erdogan finally took place on the 6th and he was received with great fanfare at a time when people wondered if this meeting was going to take place.
Recep Tayyib Erdogan visited Somalia twice during Hassan Sheikh Mohamud 's first term. The Turkish Legacy: A Billion-Dollar Bond
Erdogan’s Historic 2011 Visit
Erdogan-led Turkey has been very generous to Somalia as the Turkish leader in 2011 was the first head of a government, incidentally from a major regional power, to visit Somalia at the end of the disastrous civil war. Erdogan would visit Mogadishu again in 2015 to follow works done with the new Turkish-built airport and in 2016 to open Turkey’s largest embassy in Africa.
Billions in Aid and Infrastructure
In 2011, Somalia needed all kinds of assistance and the post-war transitional government was desperate to be taken seriously. Since then, Turkey has spent more than a billion dollars providing humanitarian and development aid through the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA).
The Turks built hospitals, roads and other crucial infrastructure such as Mogadishu’s Aden Adde International Airport which is now a jewel in the region.
Training Soldiers and Building a Base
Turkey also provided budget support to the government and scholarships to thousands of Somali students. They undertook to reform the Somali army and continuously trained more than 5,000 soldiers and 1,000 police officers from the Haram’ad special unit.
In addition, Turkey has built the largest military base outside of Turkey in Mogadishu, the Camp TURKSOM base, which includes a military academy now in Somali hands.
A Strategic Partnership
Turkey has also welcomed thousands of Somalis to invest especially in real estate or take advantage of opportunities offered by a strategic country located between Europe and Asia and, what is more, a rising regional power.
Erdogan has been so invested in Somalia that in 2021 a proposal to continue unfettered budget support caused an outcry among the opposition in Turkey’s parliament.
It is noteworthy that Turkey’s assistance and friendly support has transcended three presidents in the past 10 years. It was during Hassan Mohamud’s first term in 2014 that budgetary support resumed.
President Mohamud’s blunder
Choosing the UAE Over Turkey despite its Destabilizing Role
By prioritizing a secretive visit to the UAE over the historically reliable support of Turkey, President Mohamud has made what many consider a strategic blunder. Unlike Turkey’s long-term development aid, the UAE’s involvement has been marked by the withdrawal of assistance and efforts to destabilize the Somali government, including a 2018 attempt by UAE-trained troops to seize parliament.
Critics suggest this pivot is a repayment for the millions the UAE invested in Mohamud’s campaign—support he secured by disparaging Turkey’s non-partisan contributions to please his Gulf sponsors.
Turkey’s Non-Meddlesome Stance
While Turkey has maintained a policy of non-interference, remaining open to working with any Somali administration, President Mohamud’s recent diplomatic maneuvers have yielded concerning results. Following a visit to the UAE that felt more like a “summons” than an invitation, the President returned demoralized and physically bruised, entering a week-long period of isolation officially attributed to COVID-19.
The Egyptian Spy Hub
This domestic retreat coincided with a major security breach: the discovery of an Egyptian-Israeli intelligence hub in Mogadishu. This “spy hub,” reportedly targeting Turkish interests, has cast a dark shadow over the Mohamud administration’s new intelligence leadership and its proximity to foreign powers hostile to Somalia’s most reliable allies.
In a region where foreign influence is fiercely contested, previous president likely lost his seat to Hassan Sheikh precisely because of his unwavering commitment to preventing Somalia from becoming a regional battleground and his efforts to keep the UAE, Egypt, and Israel at arm’s length.
The Path Forward: Righting the Wrongs
Turkey’s New Confidence
Recent developments in international politics have shown that the new Turkey knows how to loudly voice its displeasure, and patiently waits for its detractors and other hostile elements in its corner. President Mohamud cannot afford to upset Turkey and would be better off repairing the damage immediately, or risk being abandoned to predatory states like the United Arab Emirates or Egypt.
Priority Actions for Hassan Sheikh
First, he should redeem himself and remove from his administration individuals deemed hostile to Turkish interests in the region or at least close to countries hostile to those interests. In this case, the recent appointment of Mahad Salad, an individual known for his pro-Egyptian positions, at the head of the powerful National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), must be reconsidered without delay.
Second, people known to have good relations with Turkey or at least not be tainted by anti-Turkish rhetoric should be appointed to key positions. Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre has yet to announce his cabinet and there is still time to right the wrongs committed early in Mohamud’s tenure, and forget about the damaging campaigns he unleashed.
A Quiet Admission
President Mohamud’s visit to Turkey, the avoidance of the meeting of IGAD countries in Nairobi on July 5 and the current visit to Eritrea seem to be an admission of the correctness of Farmajo’s foreign policy. It remains to be seen whether Mohamud has the ability to reconcile his electoral slogan of a “Somalia at peace with itself and with the world”, and the reality of constantly hostile neighbouring countries and regional powers bent on using Somalia to advance their own interests.
